A dip in production is expected for Brazil’s upcoming robusta coffee harvest in the key state of Espírito Santo. According to Cooabriel, the country’s leading cooperative for the variety, the 2026 yield is likely to fall just short of last year’s totals, though the quality of the beans appears to be improving.
Quality Over Quantity
As the harvest begins, Cooabriel President Luiz Carlos Bastianello noted that early indicators suggest a crop slightly smaller than the 2025 season. However, he emphasized that the quality of the initial deliveries has been superior, providing a potential silver lining for producers. While official volume estimates are still being finalized, the trend toward better-grade “conilon” (the local robusta variety) continues a push by state officials to move the crop beyond its traditional use in instant coffee and into higher-end blends.
Economic Pressures on Farmers
Despite the high quality of the crop, coffee growers are facing a tightening financial squeeze:
- Rising Input Costs: Global supply chain disruptions—exacerbated by international conflicts affecting the Strait of Hormuz—have driven up the prices of essential fertilizers and agricultural chemicals.
- Falling Prices: The market price for robusta has seen a significant drop, with a 60-kilogram bag falling from roughly 1,700 reais ($346) a year ago to approximately 880 reais today.
- Future Outlook: While current harvests may withstand these pressures, Bastianello warned that the 2026–27 cycle could see a more severe impact on production costs if these economic trends persist.
The National Picture
The forecast from Cooabriel offers a more cautious outlook than government estimates. Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, recently projected a 6.4% increase in the country’s total robusta production for 2026, reaching 22.1 million bags. As Espírito Santo accounts for the vast majority of this output, the cooperative’s report of a slight dip highlights a potential discrepancy between national expectations and the reality on the ground for local farmers.