A new survey conducted by MDA for the National Transport Confederation (CNT) suggests that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva still holds a slight lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round matchup for the 2026 election.
The poll, released on Tuesday, provides a different snapshot than other recent surveys that showed the candidates in a dead heat, indicating that the race remains fluid and highly competitive.
Key Findings from the CNT/MDA Survey:
- Second-Round Advantage: In a direct head-to-head scenario, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro with 48.2% of the vote compared to Flávio’s 43.6%. While Lula holds a lead outside the margin of error in this specific poll, the gap remains relatively narrow, signaling a deeply polarized country.
- First-Round Standing: When voters were asked about their choice for the first round, Lula secured 39.2% support, while Flávio Bolsonaro followed with 30.2%. Other potential candidates, such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, continue to trail significantly in the single digits.
- Approval Ratings: The Lula administration’s approval rating sits at 44.5%, while 41.2% of respondents disapprove. These figures reflect a stabilizing trend for the government as it tackles economic challenges and public safety concerns.
- Spontaneous vs. Stimulated: Lula continues to perform strongest in “spontaneous” polling—where no names are provided—suggesting high name recognition and a loyal base. However, the entrance of a Bolsonaro-backed candidate clearly consolidates the opposition vote.
Context of the Race This CNT/MDA poll arrives amid a flurry of data showing a tightening race. While other pollsters like Datafolha have recently pointed to a statistical tie, the CNT results suggest Lula retains a resilient, albeit slim, path to reelection. The “Bolsonaro factor” remains the primary driver of the opposition, as Flávio Bolsonaro successfully absorbs his father’s political capital following the elder Bolsonaro’s endorsement.
The survey interviewed 2,002 people between April 8 and April 12 across Brazil, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.