A new Datafolha survey released on April 11, 2026, reveals that Brazil’s upcoming presidential race has tightened into a statistical tie between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
If a second-round runoff were held today, the poll indicates that the two candidates would be neck-and-neck, marking a significant shift in the electoral landscape as the October elections approach.
Key Findings from the Datafolha Report:
- The Numbers: In a head-to-head matchup, Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former President Jair Bolsonaro) reached 46% of voter intentions, while President Lula followed closely at 45%. Because the survey has a two-point margin of error, the candidates are considered to be in a “technical tie.”
- A Shift in Momentum: This is the first time Flávio Bolsonaro has numerically surpassed Lula in a Datafolha poll. Earlier in March, Lula held a lead of 46% to Flávio’s 43%, suggesting that the President’s early advantage is evaporating.
- The “Bolsonaro Factor”: Flávio’s rise in the polls follows his father’s official endorsement in December. Jair Bolsonaro, who remains a deeply influential figure on the right, is currently under house arrest due to investigations into a 2023 coup plot.
- First Round Dynamics: While Lula still leads in “spontaneous” mentions (where voters name their choice without a list), he has lost his clear lead in scenarios where specific candidates are presented to respondents.
- High Rejection Rates: Both candidates face a steep climb to win over undecided voters; approximately 46% of respondents say they would never vote for Lula, while 45% say the same of Flávio Bolsonaro.
The poll, which interviewed 2,004 voters across 137 municipalities between April 7 and April 9, underscores the deep polarization of the Brazilian electorate. As Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive term at the age of 80, the narrow margins suggest that the 2026 contest will be one of the most competitive in the country’s history.