Incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has gained a distinct advantage over his right-wing rival, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, following a major political scandal involving the opposition challenger.
A newly released survey by the prominent pollster Datafolha shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 43% in a hypothetical second-round runoff. The shift represents a notable bump for the leftist president; just a week prior, a Datafolha survey had the two candidates deadlocked in a tie. In a multi-candidate first-round matchup, Lula commands the lead with 40% of voter intention, while Bolsonaro holds second place at 31%.
The shift in public opinion follows an investigative report published by Intercept Brasil. The outlet revealed that Senator Bolsonaro allegedly brokered a $24 million investment from Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master, to fund a biographical film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Vorcaro has been detained by authorities since March amid an extensive investigation into the collapse of Banco Master.
While Senator Bolsonaro has strongly denied any wrongdoing, the financial controversy appears to have damaged his campaign momentum. The Datafolha findings echo an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey released earlier in the week, which similarly placed Lula ahead of Bolsonaro by a margin of 48.9% to 41.8% in a potential runoff.
Anticipating a scenario where the fallout might force Flávio Bolsonaro out of the presidential race, Datafolha also tested a matchup featuring former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro. In a head-to-head runoff against Michelle, Lula maintains the upper hand, leading 48% to 43%. In a first-round voting scenario without Flávio on the ballot, Lula secures 41% of voter support, followed by Michelle Bolsonaro at 22%.