Brazil, the world’s premier coffee producer and exporter, is on track to ship an unprecedented volume of coffee in the upcoming marketing year beginning in July. This anticipated surge is driven by what experts forecast to be an all-time-high harvest. However, global traders and farmers remain vigilant regarding the evolving El Niño weather pattern, which could pose risks to future yields.
According to Carlos Santana, a director at EISA—the Brazilian division of major global commodities trading firm ECOM—larger export volumes are expected to start flowing out of Brazilian ports by July or August. The country’s green coffee exports are projected to reach approximately 50 million 60-kg bags, which would surpass Brazil’s previous export record of 46.3 million bags set in 2024. Market conditions are currently “inverted”—meaning immediate coffee prices are higher than future futures contracts—giving farmers a strong financial incentive to sell and ship their product rapidly.
EISA previously estimated that Brazil will yield a staggering 75.8 million bags of coffee for the 2026/27 cycle. Currently, roughly 5% of this massive crop has been harvested. The influx of Brazilian beans is expected to provide a crucial lifeline to international buyers, helping replenish global inventories that have plummeted to historic lows following severe production shortfalls in other top-growing nations over recent years.
Despite the highly optimistic near-term outlook, agricultural stakeholders are heavily focused on the threat of El Niño. While the weather phenomenon brings warmer conditions that can protect delicate coffee crops from winter frosts, the associated extreme heat can be highly destructive if it hits during the critical flowering phase, which typically occurs in September and October. Industry experts believe that El Niño’s eventual footprint will be a major factor in determining the long-term prospects and pricing of subsequent harvests.