Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has opened up a clear advantage over his right-wing challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, in the first major presidential poll released since a controversial funding scandal rocked the challenger’s campaign.
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The nationwide survey, conducted by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg between May 13 and May 18, shows the incumbent leftist leader pulled ahead of Bolsonaro in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Lula is projected to win a second-round runoff with 48.9% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro’s 41.8%. The result marks a dramatic shift from a similar survey in April, which had shown the two candidates locked in a statistical dead heat, with the son of imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro holding a nominal lead of 47.8% to Lula’s 47.5%.
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Breakdown of First-Round Voter Intentions
In a crowded first-round scenario, President Lula holds a comfortable lead over the rest of the field:
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 47.0%
- Flávio Bolsonaro: 34.3% WTAQ
- Renan Santos: 6.9% WTAQ
- Romeu Zema: 5.2% WTAQ
- Ronaldo Caiado: 2.7% WTAQ
Under Brazilian election rules, if no single candidate captures more than 50% of the valid votes in the initial October ballot, the top two finishers will square off in a decisive second-round runoff later that month.
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Context of the Shift
Voter sentiment has shifted rapidly following an investigative report by The Intercept Brasil. The publication alleged that Senator Bolsonaro negotiated a 134-million-reais ($26.85 million) commitment from Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of the now-liquidated Banco Master, to finance a biographical film about his father’s life.
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Vorcaro has been in police custody since March, facing separate charges that he attempted to bribe a former central bank director—allegations that he denies. Senator Bolsonaro has strongly dismissed any suggestions of corruption, confirming that Vorcaro agreed to finance the film but characterizing the deal purely as a “private sponsorship” that involved no governmental favors, quid pro quo, or policy promises in return.
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The AtlasIntel poll surveyed 5,032 respondents across the country and carries a margin of error of one percentage point in either direction.
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