According to a recent Datafolha survey, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are currently locked in a statistical tie regarding a potential second-round showdown for the 2026 presidential election.
The poll, conducted in mid-April 2026, shows the younger Bolsonaro—son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—narrowly edging ahead numerically for the first time with 46% of the vote, compared to Lula’s 45%. However, because the results fall within the survey’s two-percentage-point margin of error, the race is considered a technical draw.+1
Key takeaways from the report include:
- Shifting Momentum: Lula’s previous lead has steadily evaporated since the beginning of the year. In early March, Lula held a 46% to 43% advantage over the Senator, but Flávio has gained significant ground after receiving a formal public endorsement from his father.
- The “Bolsonaro” Factor: Despite Jair Bolsonaro being under house arrest following a 27-year sentence for a coup attempt, his influence remains a powerful force. Flávio’s rise suggests that the “Bolsonaro” brand continues to resonate deeply with a large portion of the Brazilian electorate.
- First-Round Vulnerability: While Lula still maintains a lead in “spontaneous” mentions (where voters name a candidate without being prompted by a list), he has lost that clear advantage in scenarios where candidates’ names are explicitly shown to respondents.
- High Rejection Rates: Both candidates face significant hurdles with voters; the poll indicates that both Lula and Flávio have high rejection rates, meaning nearly half of the electorate currently claims they would not vote for either candidate under any circumstances.
The data underscores a deeply polarized Brazil as the country prepares for the October general elections, with the incumbent president facing his most challenging political landscape to date.